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投稿时间:2025-09-01 修订日期:2025-09-13
投稿时间:2025-09-01 修订日期:2025-09-13
中文摘要: 针对岩石抗拉强度测试存在设备要求高、样本制备复杂等局限性,选取岩石密度、试件直径、杨氏模量、静态抗拉强度、加载速率和试验方法作为预测指标,动态抗拉强度为输出指标,收集164组样本数据构建岩石动态抗拉强度预测的样本数据库;通过融合时间卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Networks, TCN)的长序列建模能力与科尔莫哥罗夫-阿诺德网络(Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks, KAN)的可解释非线性变换优势,构建岩石动态抗拉强度预测的TCN-KAN组合模型;采用五折交叉验证对模型进行训练,并使用沙普利加和解释(Shapley Additive Explanations, SHAP)方法对模型预测结果进行可解释性分析,结果表明:组合模型在均方误差(3.07)、均方根误差(1.75)、平均绝对误差(1.27)、平均绝对百分比误差(10.22%)和决定系数(97.88%)等指标上均优于对比模型,加载速率和静态抗拉强度两个指标对预测结果的影响最为显著;最后,基于TCN-KAN组合模型开发智能应用软件并开展了5个工程实例应用,进一步验证了组合模型的预测准确性和可靠性,为岩石动态抗拉强度预测提供了一种智能新方法。
中文关键词: 动态抗拉强度 时间卷积网络 科尔莫哥罗夫-阿诺德网络 组合预测模型 SHAP可解释性分析 应用软件
Abstract:Addressing the limitations of rock tensile strength test, such as high equipment requirements and complex sample preparation, rock density, specimen diameter, Young"s modulus, static tensile strength, loading rate and test method were selected as prediction indicators, with dynamic tensile strength as the output indicator. A sample database for predicting rock dynamic tensile strength was constructed with 164 sets of sample data. By combining the long sequence modeling ability of Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) and the interpretable nonlinear transformation advantage of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN), a TCN-KAN combined model for predicting the dynamic tensile strength of rock was constructed. The model was trained by five-fold cross validation, and the interpretability of the model prediction results was analyzed using the SHAP method. The results showed that the combined model outperformed the comparative models in terms of mean square error (3.07), root mean square error (1.75), mean absolute error (1.27), mean absolute percentage error (10.22%) and determination coefficient (97.88%). The loading rate and static tensile strength had the most significant impact on the prediction results. Finally, based on the TCN-KAN combined model, an intelligent application software was developed and applied in five engineering cases, further verifying the predictive accuracy and reliability of the combined model. This provides an intelligent new method for predicting rock dynamic tensile strength.
keywords: dynamic tensile strength Time Convolution Network Kolmogorov-Arnold Network combined forecasting model SHAP interpretability analysis application software
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学(42367024);云南省基础研究计划面上项目(202301AT070462);昆明理工大学学科交叉研究专项(KUST-xk202025003);云南省矿山岩体稳定与灾害防控博士生导师团队(202427)
| 作者 | 单位 | |
| 亓帅 | 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院 | qishuai@stu.kust.edu.cn |
| 王超* | 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院 | wangchao@kust.edu.cn |
| 金子浚 | 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院 | |
| 贺子旺 | 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院 | |
| 喻豪 | 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院 | |
| 张绍源 | 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院 |
| Author Name | Affiliation | |
| Faculty of Land Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology | qishuai@stu.kust.edu.cn | |
| wangchao@kust.edu.cn | ||
引用文本:
亓帅,王超,金子浚,贺子旺,喻豪,张绍源.岩石动态抗拉强度预测的组合模型及软件开发[J].有色金属(矿山部分),2026,78(1):140-148.
.A combined model for rock dynamic tensile strength prediction and its software development[J].NONFERROUS METALS(Mining Section),2026,78(1):140-148.
亓帅,王超,金子浚,贺子旺,喻豪,张绍源.岩石动态抗拉强度预测的组合模型及软件开发[J].有色金属(矿山部分),2026,78(1):140-148.
.A combined model for rock dynamic tensile strength prediction and its software development[J].NONFERROUS METALS(Mining Section),2026,78(1):140-148.

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